NEHRP Clearinghouse

Title
A Survey of Expert Opinion on Low Probability Earthquakes.
File
PB261864.pdf
Author(s)
Okrent, D.
Source
National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Research Applied to National Needs., February 1975, 58 p.
Identifying Number(s)
UCLA-ENG-7515
Abstract
As one way of examining the uncertainties in the prediction of low probability earthquakes, a number of experts in the field review eleven sites within the United States and provide their independent estimates on seismicity. The seven individuals participating in the seismic survey are listed in Table 1. They were each sent the same descriptive material about the eleven sites listed in Table 2, together with a questionnaire. The seven sites investigated were: Brunswick, North Carolina; Cooper, Nebraska; Davis Besse, Ohio; Diablo Canyon, California; Grand Gulf, Mississippi; Pilgrim, Massachusetts; Rancho Seco, California; River Bend, Louisiana; Summer, South Carolina; Summit, Delaware; and Trojan, Oregon. The participants were free to refer to other sources but were requested to spend only a week or so in preparation of their responses. Included are commentaries on the eleven sites with seven separate responses. The sites selected could possibly be considered for nuclear power plants.
Keywords
Louisiana; Risk; Earthquake engineering; Ohio; Risk analysis; Earthquakes; Nebraska; Probability theory; Delaware; History; Site surveys; South Carolina; Nuclear power plants; Mississippi; Massachusetts; California; Oregon; North Carolina; Geological faults; Seismic risk