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Analysis of Earthquake Risk for Lifeline Systems. Seismic Design Decision Analysis.
Whitman, R. V.; Cornell, C. A.; Taleb-Agha, G.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Applied Science and Research Applications., March 1975, 16 p.
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The use of maximum loss estimates and probabilistic loss estimates of losses from earthquakes is discussed. The two types of earthquake-related input required for risk analyses are noted. Two approaches to risk analysis are expressed mathematically. Risk analysis for lifeline systems is reviewed. Performance criteria for lifeline systems are suggested. Modelling of lifeline systems for risk analyses is covered. The analysis procedure used in the assessment of the state of a lifeline system following an earthquake is considered. This paper has emphasized the importance of asking the question: what is the probability that various fractions of a lifeline system may be knocked out by a single earthquake. The effect of geographical dispersion of key facilities upon the answer to this question has been illustrated by simple examples.
Public utilities; Ground motion; Earthquake engineering; Earthquake resistant structures; Seismic design; Structural design; Earthquakes; Decision analysis; Water supply; Probability theory; Decision making; Earth movements; Highways; Electric utilities; Gas industry; Seismic risk