NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Seismic Risk in Chile.
- File
- PB294567.pdf
- Author(s)
- Silva, F. S.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Applied Science and Research Applications., October 1973, 95 p.
- Identifying Number(s)
- TR-181
- Abstract
- In treatment earthquake occurrences as probabilistic phenomena, this approach compares different probabilistic models in a study on the development of seismic risk levels in Chile. Acceleration is used to assess the seismic risk in a particular region of the country since damages are related to peak ground acceleration. The report summarizes the historical, geographical backgrounds and tectonics of Chile, and utilizes data containing time, epicentral location, depth, and Richter magnitudes of 3351 earthquakes between 1906 and 1972. Two models for the occurrence of earthquakes are described and their results compared. The Markov process is based on a one-step memory and the Poisson process is based on the assumption that earthquakes occur independently of time and space. In incorporating risk in a planning program, it is suggested that a risk map could be developed, similarly to an iso-acceleration map, in which levels of risk could be defined in terms of additional expense required to prevent structural damage due to the calculated probable ground acceleration. The report includes acceleration maps, probability distribution for acceleration, and chronological listings of Richter magnitudes and epicenter locations of Chilean earthquakes between 1934 and 1972.
- Keywords
- Probability theory; Earthquake resistant structures; Seismic waves; Seismic risk; Seismic epicenter; Chile; Poisson density functions; Earthquake engineering; Risk; Earthquakes; Markov processes