NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Natural Hazards: Socio-Economic Impact Assessment Model.
- File
- PB294681.pdf
- Author(s)
- Hirschberg, J. G.; Gordon, P.; Petak, W. J.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Div. of Policy Research and Analysis., July 1978, 320 p.
- Abstract
- The study reports on models that were used to measure the expected losses that could be associated with a variety of natural disasters. Data sources and data manipulations that were required to make the models operational are reviewed. The tenets of cost benefit analysis were adopted as a framework. The models are built on the premise that the probabilities of various disasters and the intensities of these disasters can be jointly predicted for future time periods for small regions. Values-at-risk are to be multiplied by the probabilities of each loss, for all levels of loss, with the results summed to yield 'expected loss'. The wealth-at-risk, once determined, had to be projected into the future using reasonable rate of wealth growth. At the same time, future losses had to be discounted to the present using similar rates. Secondary economic effects play a role on the demand side as well as on the supply side. It is presumed that the loss of productive capacity has an effect throughout the regional economy because of a removal of demand. The study reports on detailed multiplier effects which are computed from a set of regional and interregional input-output tables. On the supply side, it is suggested that many sellers will have to expand the range of their marketing. The study also reports on tests and applications of the methodology: sensitivity tests; tests on known historical disaster events; and actual cost-benefit analysis of selected mitigation measures.
- Keywords
- Hurricanes; Landslides; Damage; Disasters; Floods; Tornadoes; Tsunamis; Risk assessment; Expansion; Benefit cost analysis; Mathematical models; Storm surges; Social effect; Wind (Meteorology); Clay soils; Risk; Economic impact; Gales; Rivers; Input output analysis; United States; Demand (Economics); Socioeconomic impact assessment model; Earthquakes