NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Forecasting the Risk Inherent in Earthquake Resistant Design.
- File
- PB298354.pdf
- Author(s)
- Vagliente, V. N.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Engineering and Applied Science., May 1973, 240 p.
- Identifying Number(s)
- TR-174
- Abstract
- Engineering and economic considerations of designing a structure in the presence of an earthquake hazard are described. Data were gathered from investigations of past earthquakes, and the analysis was conducted on an empirical basis. The seismicity of the Greater San Francisco Bay Area between 1933 and 1969 was investigated. A method of performing a risk analysis for structures exposed to seismic occurrences is presented. It combines the probability of earthquake occurrence with the associated amount of property damage. Risk has been quantified as a cost which, however, is not an absolute quantity. The mechanism of earthquake occurrence is mathematically described by the Markov model which permits calculation of a conditional probability for remote future earthquakes. A Markovian decision model also was developed which is applicable to risk analysis. Three examples of seismic risk calculation as applied to mobile homes and high-rise buildings as well as the cost-benefit concept in structural design are presented. Extensive data, charts, calculations, maps, and references are included.
- Keywords
- Earthquake resistant structures; Benefit cost analysis; High rise buildings; Risk analysis; Seismic risk; Mobile homes; Structural design; Fortran 5 programming language; Earthquake engineering; Risk; Hazards; Theses; Computer programs; Fortran; Design criteria; Dynamic structural analysis