NEHRP Clearinghouse

Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030. A Summary of Findings.
January 1999, 60 p.
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The San Francisco Bay region sits astride a dangerous earthquake machine, the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates. The region has experienced major and destructive earthquakes in 1838, 1868, 1906, and 1989, and future large earthquakes are a certainty. The ability to prepare for large earthquakes is critical to saving lives and reducing damage to property and infrastructure. An increased understanding of the timing, size, location, and effects of these likely earthquakes is a necessary component in any effective program of preparedness. This study reports on the probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) for the three decades 2000 to 2030. The SFBR extends from Healdsberg on the northwest to Salinas on the southeast and encloses the entire metropolitan area, including its most rapidly expanding urban and suburban areas.
Ground motion; Damage assessment; Risk assessment; Geologic faults; Emergency preparedness; Earthquakes; San Francisco Bay (California); Seismic events; Methodology; Probability; California; Disaster planning; Geologic history; Tectonics; Suburban areas; Urbanized areas