NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2002-2031.
- File
- PB2006105352.pdf
- Source
- January 2003, 235 p.
- Identifying Number(s)
- USGS/OFR-03-214
- Abstract
- Drawing on new data and new methodologies, we have concluded that there is a 0.62 probability (i.e., a 62% probability) of a major, damaging earthquake striking the greater San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) over the next 30 years (20022031). Such earthquakes are most likely to occur on seven main fault systems identified in this study, but may also occur on faults that were not characterized as part of the study (i.e., in the background) (Figure ES.1). Our results come from a comprehensive analysis lead by the USGS and involving input from a broad group of geologists, seismologists, and other earth scientists representing government, academia and the private sector. The results of this study are appropriate for use in estimating seismic hazard in the SFBR, and estimating the intensity of ground shaking expected for specified scenario earthquakes. In addition, they provide a basis for calculating earthquake insurance premiums, planning and prioritizing expenditures for seismic upgrades of structures, and developing building codes.
- Keywords
- Risk assessment; Probability; Emergency preparedness; Tectonics; Seismic events; California; Geologic faults; Methodology; San Francisco Bay (California); Damagement assessment; Ground motion; Geologic history; Urbanized areas; Disaster planning; Suburban areas; Earthquakes