NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Generalized Linear (Mixed) Models of Post-Earthquake Ignitions.
- File
- PB2010102698.pdf
- Author(s)
- Davidson, R. A.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program., July 20, 2009, 128 p.
- Identifying Number(s)
- MCEER-09-0004
- Abstract
- This report presents a comprehensive approach to statistical modeling of post-earthquake ignitions and to data compilation for such modeling, and applies it to present day California. Specifically, regression models are developed that can be used to estimate the number of ignitions per census tract as a function of tract characteristics and the ground shaking experienced in a specified earthquake. The new approach recognizes the discrete nature of ignition counts by using generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models for the first time in this type of application. It includes careful model selection and goodness-of-fit analyses, examines multiple covariates to estimate ignitions, and uses a census tract as a unit of study to enable better estimates at a finer geographic resolution.
- Keywords
- ; Tract characteristics; Ground shaking; Post-earthquake ignitions; Generalized linear mixed models; Statistical modeling; Ignition counts; Data compilation; Generalized linear models