NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Vulnerability of Transportation and Water Systems to Science Hazards (Abstracts of Theses).
- File
- PB82229279.pdf
- Author(s)
- Bresko, D.; Shimizu, R. A.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC., January 1980, 16 p.
- Abstract
- A methodology for quantifying seismic risk to lifeline systems, specifically, water and transportation networks, was developed and demonstrated. The measure of seismic risk was defined as the annual probability exceedance function for system loss, in dollars, where system loss is the sum of repair costs and user losses. User loss was obtained by implementing a network analysis with demand functions established as the economic measure of service benefit. The area under the demand function provided a measure of the loss in user benefits. Procedures from operations research were transferred to a numerical seismic hazard simulation. Some new applications for probabilistic graph theory were developed in the process. Example applications culminated in a water system analysis based upon the Salt Lake City system, and a transportation system analysis of the eastern corridor of Pittsburgh. In all examples studied, user losses were, on the average, of the same order or magnitude as repair costs. In the absence of any specific analysis, the total lifeline loss may be roughly estimated as a doubling of the repair costs themselves.
- Keywords
- Cost analysis; Transportation models; Probability theory; Transportation; Water supply; Seismic risk; Abstracts; Earthquake engineering; Theses; Water distribution; Pipelines; Earthquakes