NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Eathquakes and Earthquake Predictions: Simulating Their Economic Effects.
- File
- PB83163725.pdf
- Author(s)
- Roberts, R. B.; Milliman, J. W.; Ellson, R. W.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC., September 30, 1982, 270 p.
- Abstract
- Research to develop a methodology for assessing the regional economic effects of earthquakes and earthquake predictions is summarized. Traditional regional economic models must be modified to account for: (1) supply side constraints; (2) the potential use of new or currently unused technologies; (3) the timing of investment decisions by firms and consumers; and (4) the decisions by firms and individuals to relocate in response to an event or the prediction of an event. An alteration of the typical regional modeling method is presented in response to these requirements. Measures to determine economic losses from natural disasters are analyzed and shown to be defective. In five earthquake simulations, estimates of the present value of regional losses are made for various contingencies. Problems encountered in the incorporation of process models and regional models are considered.
- Keywords
- ; Damage; Investments; Disasters; Income; Economic impact; Hazards; Employment; Losses; Relocation; Earthquakes