NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Risk Communication and Public Response to the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment.
- File
- PB91168070.pdf
- Author(s)
- Mileti, D. S.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Farhar, B. C.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Directorate for Engineering., December 1990, 232 p.
- Abstract
- The director of the U.S. Geological Survey issued a public statement on April 5, 1985, forecasting an earthquake of magniture 5.5 to 6.0 (possibly 7) on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault with more than a 90% probability that it would happen. California's Office of Emergency Services prepared and mailed a brochure describing the prediction and recommended actions to the more than 122,000 central California households at risk assuming a magnitude 7 earthquake. The study was designed to: (1) examine the impact of the brochure and other risk communications on public risk perception and public preparedness and mitigation; (2) determine the relationship between public perception of risk and behavior (mitigation and preparedness); and (3) measure the impact of the brochure and other risk communications on readying the public to deal with a potential 72-hour warning of the earthquake. The findings not only document why members of the public responded as they did to the earthquake prediction, but also provide a comprehensive test of the risk communication theory for the social sciences.
- Keywords
- Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment; Earthquake prediction; Forecasting; Readiness; Behavior; Earthquake warning systems; Questionnaires; Risk; Disasters; Publicity; San Andreas Fault; Responses; Mass communication