NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Macroeconomic Effects of the Loma Prieta Earthquake.
- File
- PB93120038.pdf
- Author(s)
- Brady, R. J.; Perkins, J. B.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Div. of Industrial Science and Technological Innovation., November 1991, 53 p.
- Abstract
- In the study, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) found that macroeconomic effects of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake were short-term, transitory, and isolated as measured by Gross Regional Product (GRP) losses. Using their input-output model and the statistical least squares method, ABAG analyzed PMSA unemployment data, taxable sales data, and total wage and total output loss as measured by decreased earnings during the period of disruption. They found that impact on the San Francisco Bay Area was minimal (estimated at maximum GRP loss of $181 to $715 million) for the following reasons: (1) project damage was concentrated in isolated areas; (2) businesses' ability to relocate into other areas within the region; (3) the high degree of earthquake preparedness among Silicon Valley firms; and, most important, (4) the minimal damage to regional transportation and other infrastructure. The authors concluded that the type of damage is a more important indicator than the extent of damage; that building property damage alone is not a good indicator of economic disruption; and that maintaining the Bay Area infrastructure should be top priority before and after an earthquake.
- Keywords
- Economic factors; Estimates; Statistical analysis; Loma Prieta Earthquake; California; San Francisco Bay Area; Earthquake damage; Earthquakes; Economic impact; Economic analysis; Employment; Least squares method