NEHRP Clearinghouse

Probabilistic and Statistical Models for Seismic Risk Analysis.
Veneziano, D.
National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Research Applied to National Needs., July 1975, 156 p.
Identifying Number(s)
A number of models for engineering seismic risk analysis are proposed and compared. In all cases, uncertainties are included both on the seismic demand at the site, and on the seismic resistance of the facility. Particular attention is given to the effects of inductive uncertainty on the model parameters, which is due to limited available information. These parameters include the mean occurrence rate of seismic events, the 'decay rate' of the frequency-site intensity law, the mean value and the variance of the resistance distribution. The results from the models are compared with currently used approximations, which are found to be unconservative. A numerical example is presented, dealing with the estimation of seismic risk for nuclear power plants located in Massachusetts.
Probability theory; Seismic design; Damage assessment; Earthquake resistant structures; Massachusetts; Seismic risk; Earth movements; Ground motion; Earthquake engineering; Buildings; Risk; Nuclear power plants; Seismic design decision analysis; Earthquakes