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A Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Mapping; Development of Stable Design Parameters.
Mortgat, C. P.; Shah, H. C.
Organisme de Controle Technique de la Construction, Algiers (Algeria).; National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Applied Science and Research Applications., March 1978, 241 p.
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The Bayesian procedure, developed in this research and applied as a case study to Nicaragua, has the advantage of combining all the available historical, seismological, and geological information in a rational and consistent way. The mapping parameters considered for this study are the peak ground acceleration and the duration of the strong ground motion. In order to be consistent with the probabilistic approach of the model and to take into consideration the large scatter for attenuation data, probabilistic treatment of the attenuation relationships in the form of coefficient of variation is presented. Comparison is made between the iso-acceleration maps developed in this study and previous results. An in-depth numerical study of 97 accelerograms is also presented in this report. This numerical study was conducted to better understand the statistical behavior of input accelerograms and response time histories and to develop better design parameters for use by engineers. Various possible applications and uses of the parameters developed are suggested. (Portions of this document are not fully legible)
Mapping; Seismic waves; Ground motion; Hazards; Earthquake engineering; Earthquakes; Reaction time; Nicaragua; Earth movements; Bayesian analysis; Probability distribution functions; Accelerometers; Seismic risk