NEHRP Clearinghouse
- Title
- Natural Hazards: Earthquake, Landslide, Expansive Soil Loss Models.
- File
- PB294686.pdf
- Author(s)
- Wiggins, J. H.; Slosson, J. E.; Krohn, J. P.
- Source
- National Science Foundation, WAshington, DC. Div. of Policy Research and Analysis., December 1978, 166 p.
- Abstract
- Natural hazards generally associated with earth movement are considered, namely, earthquake, landslide, and expansive soil. Each hazard was modeled with regard to national and sudden loss projections. Regarding the earthquake hazard, it is estimated that the annualized loss to the nation is about $650 million dollars in damage. Expansive soils, although not dramatic in nature, cause the 1970 building wealth in 1970 dollars to experience losses on the order of 1.1 billion dollars. Landslide caused on the order of 200 million dollars in annualized losses to the 1970 building population at risk in terms of 1970 dollars. From the standpoint of sudden losses (a 100-year event), earthquake dominates the scene for all earth-related hazards. No sudden loss scenarios were computed for landslide and expansive soil losses since their statistical extremes are not very severe. Mitigations were applied to the theoretical national loss, earth hazard models. It was determined that if the most effective mitigations were invoked beginning in the year 1981, approximately 24 percent of the annual loss projected by the year 2000 could be saved. Of all the natural hazards examined, it was determined that earthquake is by far the most extreme type of hazard and also affords the greatest possibility of sudden loss reduction should adequate warning be given and consequent appropriate actions taken to reduce the risk.
- Keywords
- Cost analysis; Risk assessment; Expansion; Value; Economic models; Rainfall; Landslides; Clay soils; Mathematical models; Earth movements; Damage; United States; Risk; Disasters; Soil water; Economic impact; Injuries; Earthquakes