NEHRP Clearinghouse

Probabilistic Seismic Stability Analysis - A Case Study.
A-Grivas, D.; Nadeau, G.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Engineering and Applied Science., July 1979, 42 p.
Identifying Number(s)
The present study provides an application of a probabilistic seismic stability analysis to a natural slope located near Slingerlands, New York. A detailed description of the model used can be found in a previous report of this series. The safety of the slope is measured in terms of its probability of failure rather than the customary factor of safety. Three types of earthquake sources are investigated, namely, a point, a line and an area source, and the dependence on significant seismic parameters of the probability of failure of the slope is examined. On the basis of the results obtained in this study, it is concluded that the present model is useful in assessing the reliability of soil slopes under both static and seismic conditions and the probability of failure of a soil slope is greatly affected by the type of the earthquake source involved and by the values of seismic parameters that are associated with it.
Probability theory; Seismic waves; Slingerlands (New York); Seismic risk; Earthwork; Soil properties; Seismic surveys; New York State; Slopes; Earthquakes