NEHRP Clearinghouse

ShakeOut Scenario. Version 1.0.
Jones, L. M.; Bernknopf, R.; Cox, D.; Goltz, J.; Hudnut, K.; Mileti, D.; Perry, S.; Ponti, D.; Porter, K.; Reichle, M.; Seligson, H.; Shoaf, K.; Treiman, J.; Wein, A.
January 2008, 312 p.
Identifying Number(s)
['USGS-OFR-2008-1150', 'CGS-25']
This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change nowbefore the earthquaketo avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the regions social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into therest of the ShakeOut Scenario.
Kern County (California); Scenarios; Damage assessment; Seismic design; Socioeconomic factors; Geology; Casualties; Orange County (California); Economic impact; Earthquakes; Utilities; Los Angeles County (California); Riverside County (California); Ground motion; Buildings; Earthquake engineering; San Bernardino County (California); Emergency preparedness; Aftershocks; California; Imperial County (California); Emergency response; San Andreas Fault; San Diego County (California); Ventura County (California)