NEHRP Clearinghouse

Algorithm for the Estimation of Seismic Risk (Seismic Design Decision Analysis.
Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Kronrod, T. L.; Molchan, G. M.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Engineering and Applied Science., December 1974, 36 p.
Identifying Number(s)
This report presents an algorithm to calculate the probability characteristics of various effects of a number of earthquakes on a given object in a seismic zone. The algorithm is based on: (1) the sequence of earthquakes in space, time and energy; (2) spatial distribution of intensity of ground tremors from fixed earthquakes; and (3) effects that the given object experiences from ground tremors of a certain intensity. A computer version of the algorithm permits the use of practically any engineering, seismological and economic information necessary for estimates of effects of earthquakes. Definitions of problems and general solutions which may be calculated are given. The problem of calculating a generalized Poissonian distribution which is often encountered in earthquake statistics and in the mathematical theory of risk is discussed.
Seismic waves; Ground motion; Poisson density functions; Earthquake engineering; Risk analysis; Seismic design; Earthquakes; Probability theory; Translations; Earth movements; Mathematical models; Algorithms; Seismic risk