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Probabilistic Seismic Stability Analysis of Earth Slopes.
A-Grivas, D.; Howland, J. D.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Engineering and Applied Science., December 1980, 131 p.
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A new mathematical model is proposed for determining the reliability of earth slopes during earthquakes. The method provides a probabilistic, pseudo-static, seismic stability analysis. Safety of slopes is measured in terms of probability of failure rather than the customary safety factor, and the numerical values are determined via a Monte Carlo simulation of failure. Significant uncertainties present in conventional methods of analysis have been identified and probabilistic tools introduced for their description and amelioration. This report reviews the objectives and achievements of the project. Models used to account for the variability of soil strength are described and illustrated. Results of a parametric study on the relative strength and seismic parameters are presented in graphs and tables. Finally, an evaluation of the developed model is included with a discussion of its applicability and limitations.
Probability theory; Probability density functions; Mathematical models; Earthquake engineering; Soil dynamics; Soil properties; Slopes; Earthquakes