NEHRP Clearinghouse

Bayesian Geophysical Model for Seismic Hazard.
Shah, H. C.; McCann, M. W.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC., May 1981, 193 p.
Identifying Number(s)
The development of a new methodology for modeling strong ground motion for application in seismic hazard analysis is presented. It is based on an event defined according to its size and seismotectonic properties. A Bayesian model is described that incorporates the information from empirical studies as well as theoretical seismological models into the estimate of future strong ground motion. The methodology defines what information is available and compares it to that currently being used. A theoretical seismological method is selected to provide additional input on strong ground motion into the Bayesian model. It is applied to the determination of the Fourier Transform of Acceleration and deterministic modeling of the Imperial Valley in southern California. Examples demonstrating the Bayesian model are presented and a sensitivity study identifies the effects of various source parameters on the predicted strong motion. Recommendations for future research are provided.
Seismic hazards; Seismic waves; Ground motion; Fourier transformation; Earthquake engineering; Monte Carlo method; Earthquakes; Probability theory; Earth movements; Seismic risk