NEHRP Clearinghouse

Seismic Hazard Analysis: Improved Models, Uncertainties and Sensitivities.
Araya, R.; Der Kiureghian, A.
National Science Foundation, Washington, DC., March 1988, 167 p.
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The main objective of the report was to develop a new methodology for assessing earthquake hazards that allows the use of refined models of earthquake occurrences, sources, attenuation laws, and measures of intensity, the full incorporation of model uncertainties in the seismic hazard estimation, and the analysis of sensitivities of the seismic hazard with respect to variables and model parameters. The availability of the improved methodology enables the seismic hazard analyst to employ refined earthquake source models and associated attenuation laws, including the effects of source geometry, rupture directivity and propagation of seismic waves, in the assessment of seismic hazard. The proposed methodology facilitates the analysis of sensitivities of the computed seismic hazard to various sources of uncertainties and to various model parameters. Such analyses can be used to determine areas where further refinements and collection of data can be more effective in reducing the dispersion in the estimated seismic hazard. A simple method to estimate the dispersion of the calculated seismic hazard is also presented, that takes advantage of the solution procedure developed. Examples and applications are presented to illustrate the versatility of the procedure and to examine the accuracy of the solution technique.
; Earthquake damage; Hazards; Risk; Earthquake engineering; Probability theory; Estimation; Earth movements; Seismic events; Intensity; Mathematical models; Seismic waves